Your team has a mission. You need to identify your top supporters in your community from a list—thousands of names, addresses, and phone numbers you have representing potential supporters in your community.
But where do you start?
Without a way to distinguish the most likely supporters from everyone else, outreach becomes a guessing game. You knock on doors, make calls, and send emails hoping that enough of them land. But hope isn't a strategy, especially when your staff hours are limited, your budget is tight, and the work you're doing is too important to leave to chance.
Voter model scores can solve the problem. With Organizer by Murmuration, our outreach and organizing platform, organizations can access more than 40 model scores. Organizer is powered by data from Atlas, Murmuration's enriched voter file. All of the model scores are built and maintained by our in-house team of researchers and data scientists. As people register to vote, move to a new address, or otherwise change over time, their scores refresh to match—so you’re always working from the most current picture of your community.
What are Voter Model Scores?
Voter model scores are predictive data points that estimate the likelihood that a specific person holds a particular belief, will take a particular action, or can be reached through a particular channel.
Murmuration’s model scores are built using statistical modeling that draws on voter file data, consumer data, Census data, and behavioral signals to generate a score for each person in a voter file.
These scores answer the questions that matter most before outreach even begins, such as:
- Who is likely to turn out to vote?
- Who cares about reproductive rights?
- Who might be persuadable on healthcare?
- Who feels let down by both political parties?
In Organizer, voter model scores can be used to build tailored contact lists for canvassing, phone banking, and email outreach. Model scores are also accessible at the individual profile level if your organization wants to evaluate specific potential supporters, candidates, or volunteers.
Our model scores consistently outperform comparable models on the market. For example, our 2024 presidential turnout model came out ahead in 50 of 51 cases spanning every state and D.C. Our refreshed Race and Ethnicity model reached 88.5% accuracy, outpacing other leading vendors. Every 1% gain in accuracy represents roughly 2 million more voters classified correctly. That edge has real consequences for who your outreach reaches.
Curious how model scores could sharpen your outreach? Request a free demo of Organizer.
The Power of Local Model Scores in Atlas
Most turnout data is built for the top of the ticket: the presidential and midterm races that draw national attention. But so much of the critical organizing work happens in the municipal, school board, and county elections that shape daily life in a community. These are exactly the races where traditional national turnout scores fall short.
Rather than stretching one national score to cover every election, our data scientists train separate models for each local geography. The county turnout score in Atlas for your county, for example, is built only on data from that county—capturing the real dynamics of how your neighbors participate in local elections, something a one-size-fits-all national score can’t account for. The result is, in effect, a custom turnout model for every jurisdiction.
That’s a real advantage for organizers working down-ballot. They can find the voters most likely to decide a local race and focus their energy where it counts most—even in smaller jurisdictions that national modeling tends to overlook. Across 5,475 school board, municipal, and county elections, our local turnout models outperformed a leading vendor model 99.8% of the time.
Looking for more outreach strategies? 5 ideas to try →
What’s the Benefit of Voter Model Scores?
Without model scores, many nonprofits are conducting outreach without the best data available. And the numbers show just how costly that is.
If 30% of the people you contact without a data-driven strategy are likely to be genuine supporters, that means 70% of your effort goes to people who are unlikely to respond, engage, or act. With Model Scores guiding your outreach, that supporter rate could rise to around 75%—a potential efficiency gain of up to 2.5x.
For nonprofits or community organizations operating with limited resources, this can be the difference between a campaign that builds power and one that just burns out your volunteers.
How Do Voter Model Scores Work in Organizer?
In Organizer, voter model scores are embedded directly into the platform. You don’t have to switch between platforms, hire a data team, or have technical expertise to use them.
Your Organizer account includes all voter profiles within your geographic area. Each profile includes the person’s available model scores alongside other key data about them.
When you're building a contact list, you can filter and segment by model scores to surface the contacts most likely to be relevant to your campaign. Organizer lets you:
- Set score thresholds
- Combine multiple scores
- Build precise audiences
- See the shape of the score distribution
The models are re-scored regularly and updated monthly as new data becomes available.
Which Voter Model Scores Are Available in Organizer?
Organizer provides access to a curated, comprehensive suite of 40+ model scores across four key categories, each designed to answer a different strategic question.
We publish a score only when it clearly outperforms the next-best alternative, measured against internal and external benchmarks. Since some models are more predictive than others, every release comes with guidance in our model release notes—so you always know a score’s best use cases and how much predictive power it carries.
Types of Voter Model Scores in Organizer
Organizer’s model scores fall into these four categories:
- Turnout: Is this person likely to vote in specific elections?
- Beliefs: Where does this person align politically, and what does this person care about?
- Demographics: What is this person’s likely ethnicity, class, religious affiliation, and household makeup?
- Engagement: How does this person engage in civic life, and how reachable are they?
Voter Sentiment Scores in Organizer
Murmuration continuously develops new models as the civic landscape evolves. For example, our team recently released these scores that open up powerful new organizing possibilities:
#1. Party Dissatisfaction Score
What It Is: Measures the likelihood that a voter feels that no political party represents them adequately.
What It Solves: This score addresses the growing share of the American electorate that feels alienated from both major parties. These voters are often disengaged, skeptical, or cynical about politics, but they're not necessarily unreachable. In fact, they may be among the most persuadable people in your universe because they haven't firmly committed to one side.
#2. Rule of Law Support Score
What It Is: Measures the likelihood that a voter believes their elected officials need to comply with all laws, even if they disagree with them.
What It Solves: This score helps you find the people in your community who are already primed to care about rule-of-law issues. Plus, it uncovers who is most likely to respond to messaging about the importance of legal accountability for elected officials.
#3. Ranked Choice Voting Support Score
What It Is: Measures the likelihood that a voter supports the use of ranked choice voting for elections.
What It Solves: For organizations working on electoral reform, this score helps you find the audience that already has a positive orientation toward RCV—making them natural candidates for deeper engagement, volunteer recruitment, or peer-to-peer outreach on ballot initiatives.
Case Study: How Model Scores Helped LEE Achieve a 77% Win Rate →
How Can Voter Model Scores Solve Real Organizing Challenges?
You know your community better than anyone. But even with a full set of model scores at your fingertips, it isn’t always obvious which one to reach for—or how to turn a likelihood into a plan.
Below, we walk through some of the most common challenges our partners face, and show how the right model score can help you meet each one.
Problem: You don't know who's actually going to show up on Election Day.
Solution: Turnout & Engagement Scores
Organizer's Turnout and Engagement scores help you focus on the people who are on the fence: likely enough to vote that a little encouragement could make the difference, but not so certain that they don't need the nudge.
Organizer includes midterm and presidential turnout scores, as well as thousands of locally trained turnout models spanning municipal, school board, and county elections across more than 3,000 jurisdictions nationwide.
Problem: You're sending the same message to everyone, and it's not landing.
Solution: Beliefs Scores
One of the most common mistakes in nonprofit outreach is treating every contact the same. Organizer's Beliefs scores let you segment your list by what people actually care about, so your messaging can meet them where they are.
Available Beliefs scores include:
- Climate change belief
- Healthcare support
- Gun control support
- Immigration support
- Voting access support
- Vaccination support, and more
Problem: You're not sure if your outreach is actually reaching the communities you most want to serve.
Solution: Demographics Scores
Civic power isn't built equally across all communities. Many nonprofits and community organizations exist precisely to close that gap. But knowing who you want to reach and being able to find and prioritize them in a large voter file are two different things. Demographics model scores in Organizer help bridge that gap, giving your team the data to identify and center the communities your mission is built around.
Scores like the Ethnicity Scores (the probability that someone is a certain ethnicity) and Financial Comfort Score (a measure of perceived economic circumstances) help you understand the community context behind each contact.
Specifically, the Ethnicity model scores—built with rigor and transparency—helps ensure your contact lists reflect the communities you serve, and that your outreach strategies aren't inadvertently skewing toward easier-to-reach or historically over-contacted populations.
See What Smarter Outreach Looks Like in Your Community
Voter model scores in Organizer give your team the clarity to start strategizing: focusing your canvassers, phone bankers, and email outreach on the contacts most likely to move, with messages tailored to what actually matters to them.
Whether you're mobilizing voters for a local election, building a base around a specific issue, reaching politically disaffected communities, or organizing for democratic accountability, Organizer has the scores to help you do it smarter.
Ready to see how it works with your community's data? Request a free demo of Organizer.